Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Remnants of Tropical Depression Fay will produce heavy rain northward from the Virginias to Pennsylvania and localized flash flooding and isolated tornadoes may occur.

South
Parts of the South will see showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday including the Carolinas, Florida Peninsula and southern Texas.All interests along the Gulf Coast should closely monitor Hurricane Gustav over the next few days.

Midwest
Thunderstorms will be scattered on Wednesday ahead of a cold front from Lake Superior to the central Plains. Parts of southeast Ohio and eastern Kentucky will pick up some rain from remnants of Tropical Storm Fay.

West
Lingering tropical moisture will lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado on Wednesday. Across the Northwest, a front associated with a Pacific storm will trigger showers over Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana. Highs will range to over 100 in portions of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.  (NWS, Media Sources)

TD Fay Response

Region IV remains in response mode due to continued potential flooding from rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Depression Fay. (FEMA Reg IV RRCC)

Federal Response:
Region IV:

• RRCC remains at Level II,  7:00 a.m. -  7:00 p.m. EDT.
• Region IV IMAT deployed to FL EOC (1person Orlando, 1 person-Tallahasee)
• Region IV ERT-A deployed to Clanton, AL.
• Pre-designated FCO & Response Liaison on site in AL.

State Actions
State of Florida:
Thirteen (13) fatalities; five (5) injuries confirmed
Shelters/Population: 5/372 ( Red Cross)
Power Outages (506)  (FEMA Region IV)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.(FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Hurricane Gustav
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was located about 80 miles west of Port au Prince, Haiti and about 155 miles southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba.

Gustav has not moved much during the past few hours but is expected to resume a motion toward the west-northwest near 5 mph. A west-northwest to west track is forecast during the next day or two with a gradual increase in forward speed. On the forecast track Gustav should pass between Jamaica and the southeastern coast of Cuba on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast and Gustav could regain Hurricane strength on Thursday once it moves away from Haiti.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center.

Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches possible. 

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in areas of onshore winds.

Invest 95:  A broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days as it moves slowly northwestward.

Tropical Low #2: A large tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing limited and disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  This system has some potential for slow development during the next couple of days as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Tropical Low #3:  Cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of Bermuda have diminished.

Remnants of Fay:  The surface low associated with Fay was located 10 miles east of Chattanooga, Tennessee  moving northeast at 10 mph.   The remnants of Fay will continue to move northeastward and weaken across the Appalachians tonight.     

Eastern Pacific:
There is no current tropical cyclone activity at this time.

Western Pacific:
There is no current tropical cyclone activity at this time.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, August 26, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: Light (163 new fires)
New large fires: 8
Uncontained large fires: 26
Large fires contained: 2
States with Large fires: OR, WA, CA, WY, CO, NV, UT, ID, MT, TN, NJ and NM.

Dry and windy weather will continue today over portions of the Great Basin, Wyoming and Montana. Gusty winds and low humidity is also on tap for northern California and Minnesota. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Southeast.  (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On August 26, 2008, Amendment # 1 and 2 to FEMA-1785-DR-FL was approved.  Five (5) Counties were added for Individual Assistance and eight (8) Counties were added for Public Assistance.

On August 26, 2008, Amendment # 19 to FEMA-1763-DR-IA for Iowa was approved adding four (4) Counties for Individual Assistance.

On August 26, 2008, the Governor of Vermont requested a major disaster declaration as a result of excessive rainfall that caused flash flooding during the period of July 21 to August 12, 2008. The Governor is requesting Public Assistance for seven counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

On August 26, 2008 the Governor of Maine requested a major disaster declaration for Public Assistance for three counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide due to Severe Weather, Flooding and Tornadoes, dated August 22, 2008.  (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

South
Areas from the Southeast through the southern Appalachians will see significant rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Fay.

Although the rain is badly needed in the drought-stricken areas, flash flooding is likely in some locales and an isolated tornado is also possible.

West
Much of the Southwest, from Southern California to the Four Corners region, will be laden with tropical moisture today.  The result will be showers and thunderstorms over a good part of the area.  Some storms may produce blowing sand and dust in the Desert Southwest.

Northern sections of the Interior West will see some rather gusty winds.  California's Central Valley will remain in the mid-to upper 90s with a few 100s. High temperatures will range to over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.  The high temperatures and winds could raise the fire danger in the region.   (NWS, Media Sources)

TD Fay Response

Flooding on three major highways in Gadsden County, FL could possibly cause a major problem with access to the county.  Food and water is being delivered to Gadsden County by the state.
No reported impact to nationally significant critical infrastructure and/or key resources.(NWS)
The following rivers are reporting currently at or above flood stage: St. Marks River (Wakulla County), St. Marks River (Baker/Nassau Counties), St. John's River (Lake Harney/Volusia/Seminole Counties) Ochlocknee River near Bloxam/Havana (Gadsden/Leon Counties), Black Creek at Middleburg (Clay County), Sopchoppy River (Wakulla County), St. John's River at Astor/Deland/Sanford (Volusia/Lake Counties), Aucilla River at Lamont (Jefferson/Madison Counties), Fisheating Creek at Palmdale (Glades County) and Withlacoochee at Dunnellon (Citrus/Marion Counties). (FEMA Reg IV RRCC)

Federal Response:
Region IV:
RRCC remains at Level II,  7:00 a.m. -  7:00 p.m. EDT.
JFO location is being identified
PDAs continue in affected areas.
IMAT Situational Awareness (SA) Team is located in Leon County, FL

Region VI:
RRCC remains at Level III, 7:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT

State Actions
State of Florida:
Eleven (11) fatalities; five (5) injuries confirmed
Still in response mode due to potential flooding.
Shelters/Population: 4/296 ( SLB)
Power Outages 5,000. (SLB)

State of Louisiana:
State Crisis Action Team monitoring situation.
No limiting factors.
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is pulling out all of their flood teams staged in LA.     .(FEMA Regional Summaries)

State of Georgia
One (1) confirmed fatality; one (1) injury
Grady County, GA on Barnett Creek, Deer Lake Dam.
The dam was stated as being potentially at risk of failing.
The Georgia State Dam Safety Office representative stated that the dam has not failed.
The emergency spillway did flow and the dam apparently was damaged due to some overtopping.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Hurricane Gustav
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Hurricane Gustav was located about 100 miles south-southeast of Port au Prince, Haiti and about 300 miles southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph and this motion is expected to continue today with a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed forecast on Wednesday.  On this track it should move over southwestern Haiti Tuesday and near or just south of Cuba on Wednesday. 

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph with higher gusts.  Gustav is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  The hurricane could become a category two hurricane before landfall in Haiti. 

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 Miles.

Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches over southern Hispaniola and Jamaica with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. 

Coastal storm surge flooding of 2-4 feet above normal tide levels can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.

Tropical Depression Fay
The National Hurricane Center reports Fay has weakened to a remnant low and is now a rain event for the SE.
The system was located 50 miles east of Jackson, Mississippi and 165 miles north of New Orleans, Louisiana.
 The system is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over parts of AL, FL panhandle, western and northern GA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas through Wednesday morning.

Invest 95
Shower activity has become a little more concentrated today about 600 miles east of the northern leeward islands.
Upper-level winds are expected to gradually become more favorable for development of this system over the next couple of days at it moves slowly northwestward.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Julio
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Depression Julio was located about 110
miles north-northwest of Santa Rosalia, Mexico.

The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph. This motion is expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts.  Julio is forecast to dissipate later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Julio is expected to produce additional 1 to 3 inch rain accumulations over northwestern Mexico with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches possible.

Western Pacific:
There is no current tropical cyclone activity at this time. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Monday, August 25, 2008 at 09:22 AM EDT a 6.6 magnitude earthquake struck 140 miles northeast of Jumla, Nepal at a depth of 21.7 miles.  There were at least three additional seismic events in the same area measuring over 5.0 - the latest occurring at 3:13 PM EDT.  There were no reports of damage or injuries.

On Monday, August 25, 2008 at 9:57 pm EDT, a 4.8 earthquake struck 118 miles west-southwest from Adak, AK at a depth of 32 miles.  There were no reports of damage or injuries and no Tsunami was generated.  (USGS, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Monday, August 25, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: Light (69 new fires)
New large fires: 5
Uncontained large fires: 27
Large fires contained: 3

States with Large fires: AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, TN, WA and WY
Warm and dry conditions continue throughout much of the West.  Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible in northeast Nevada, northern Utah and western Wyoming.  A large low pressure system will approach the northwest with scattered showers mainly west of the Cascades, spreading east.  Winds speeds will also begin to increase across the West. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On August 26, 2008 FEMA 3287-EM-CA was amended closing the Incident Period effective  August 20, 2008.

On August 26, 2008 FEMA-1783-DR-NM was amended closing the Incident Period effective August 20, 2008.

On August 26, 2008 FEMA-1783-DR-NM was amended adding that all counties in the State are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.   (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

South
Showers and thunderstorms will cover the southern U.S. east of Texas and Oklahoma today, while isolated showers and storms are forecast for Texas and Oklahoma. The center of Tropical Depression Fay's slow-moving circulation will remain in Louisiana or Mississippi.

 Locally heavy rain and flash flooding will continue threaten parts of the Deep South. The remnants of Fay will cause downpours in Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, eastern Tennessee, Georgia and parts of the Carolinas Tuesday and Wednesday.

Midwest
Cool Canadian high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest early this morning will cause temperatures to drop into the mid-to-upper 20s and 30s away from the lakes across northern Minnesota, western Upper Michigan and northern Wisconsin. Isolated afternoon or evening thunderstorms may occur over Nebraska and Kansas, and showers might affect the Ohio Valley including Kentucky and Missouri.

West
A dry cold front will deliver gusty winds and a scattering of light showers (and isolated dry thunderstorms) to the Pacific Northwest as far east as northwest Montana today.
The most likely area for showers are: extreme northwest Montana, northern Idaho and far eastern Washington.

Much farther to the south, isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop over the Four Corners states, mainly in the higher elevations. High temperatures will range to around 100 in eastern Montana, and over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Depression Fay Response

Fay is nearly stationary over southern MS and will remain stalled for another 12-24 hours before moving northeast into central MS or central AL by Tuesday, August 26, 2008. Fay is located about 75 miles south of Jackson, MS and 90 miles north of New Orleans, LA. As the system will initially remain quasi-stationary through tonight moisture will stream northward on the eastern side of Fay helping spawn moderate to heavy rainfall over the central Gulf and extending into the lower Tennessee Valley.

While the high wind threat will become of less concern as Fay gradually weakens over land flooding remains possible across the central Gulf States as the rain bands have not moved significantly. Temperatures across the region will remain close to the 80 degree mark with high humidity as extensive cloud cover and persistent rains will limit surface heating.

Federal Response
The NRCC is activated at Level III 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. EDT with support from External Affairs, Operations, Planning, Logistics, Finance, Department of Defense Liaison and U.S. Coast Guard Liaison.

Region IV:
Level III 12 hour operations beginning today, August 25, 2008 until JFO is established.
PDA Teams continue assessments in FL. IMAT Situational Awareness (SA) Team is located in Nassau County, FL. Pre-designated FCO at AL EOC.

Region VI:
The RRCC remains at Level II, 24/7- planning for worst-case event (Major Flooding / stalling of Fay)
FEMA Region VI Incident Management Assistance Team is located at the Baton Rouge Warm Cell, and Situational Awareness Unit located in New Orleans, LA. ESFs 3, 6, 8, DoD and USCG are at EOC; all others on stand-by. St. Charles Parish in LA activated. USACE reports levee problems in New Orleans are not anticipated. Canal pumps have been deployed to New Orleans; gates were tested and working.

State Actions
State of Florida:   
Eleven (11) fatalities; five (5) injuries are confirmed 
The state of Florida is still in response mode due to potential flooding. 
The EOC was at Level I, 24/7 but scaled back August 24, 2008.
Major Disaster Declaration for four (4) counties for Public Assistance with more to be added; IA request is pending.
Labor Emergency Grant for $20 million requested and pending
IOF established and staffed in Orlando.
Flooding in FL continues as rivers from neighboring states flow into FL.
2 state DRCs opened yesterday (originally scheduled to open Tuesday, August 26) in Barefoot Bay and Melbourne
Tyndall AFB resumes normal operations as of 0700 EDT, today, August 25, 2008

A National Emergency Grant was submitted to the Department of Labor for humanitarian aid / business recapitalization needs.Priorities are the on-going PDAs and continuing to identify a JFO location. Three (3) shelters remain open with two hundred ninety-five (295) occupants . (FL reports as of 0300 EDT, 8/25). 26,198 power outages are reported. 

State of Georgia:
One (1) confirmed fatality; one (1) injury have been reported. Shelters/Population: 2/40 (NSS Report as of midnight, 8/24)

State of Mississippi:
The EOC is monitoring (Level IV) the conditions.Each coastal county will open at least 1 shelter.

State of Alabama:
The Governor has declared a State of Emergency. TheEOC activated with a Unified Command established. State of AL reports 1 confirmed fatality. Power outages 45,935. Shelters/Population: 4/81 (NSS Report as of midnight, 8/24)

State of Louisiana:
State Crisis Action Team located at EOC and monitoring situation. Six (6) shelters are on stand-by in three (3) parishes.No limiting factors are anticipated.   (Senior Leadership Briefing, TS Fay - 1700, August 24, 2008)

National Infrastructure Coordinating Center (NICC)

There are no reported significant impacts to nationally significant critical infrastructure and/or key resources. 

US Coast Guard

All ports are open except for Pasacagoula, MS and Mobile, AL. A single over-flight was conducted yesterday to inspect ports.Two (2) Disaster Area Response Teams are on stand-by.

Colorado Tornadoes and Severe Weather

A tornado was reported at 5:21 p.m. MDT about 2 miles in Douglas County north of Castle Rock, CO and east of I-25.  The tornado was on the ground for approximately 15 minutes in primarily rural areas.  There is no report of damage or injury. The Colorado Department of Transportation reports that State Highway 67 is closed at mile marker 97, three miles south of Deckers (Douglas County), CO due to a mudslide.   (FEMA Region VIII)

Texas Severe Weather/Flooding Response

The EOC activated at Level I Emergency Operations for Severe Storms and Flooding on August 18, 2008. The Texas Governor requested a Major Disaster Declaration. Texas DOT, DPS, and military forces continue to aid in flood response operations

One (1) shelter open in Starr County with thiry-one (31) occupants (NSS Report Aug 24 8:45 EDT)                 
Flood waters continue to recede in Clay and Wichita counties with roads reopening.   (Senior Leadership Briefing, TS Fay - 1700, August 24, 2008)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

There is nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean
Invest 94
A broad area of low pressure continues over eastern Caribbean Sea between Puerto Rico and the Netherland Antilles.  The associated thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated and reports from a NOAA buoy indicate the low-level circulation may be becoming better organized.  Upper-level winds are currently favorable for development and the system could become a tropical depression later today as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system today if necessary.

Invest 95
There is disorganized shower activity several hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands and is associated with a tropical wave.  Upper-level winds are not currently favorable for tropical cyclone formation and development if any is expected to be slow to occur.

Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Julio
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Julio was located about 30 miles west-southwest of Loreto, Mexico. Julio is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days and julio is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today.

Western Pacific
There is no current tropical cyclone activity at this time.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Monday at 12:32 a.m.EDT an earthquake with a 4.5 magnitude struck Alaska, 57 miles south of Perryville with a depth of 7.1 miles. No damages or injuries were reported. No Tsumamis. (USGS, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

The National Fire Activity as of Sunday, August 24, 2008:

• National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 3
• Initial attack activity: Light (69 new fires)
• New large fires: 5
• Uncontained large fires: 27
• Large fires contained: 3
• States with Large fires: AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, TN, WA and WY

Warm and dry conditions continue throughout much of the West.  Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible in northeast Nevada, northern Utah and western Wyoming.  A large low pressure system will approach the northwest with scattered showers mainly west of the Cascades, spreading east.  Winds speeds will also begin to increase across the West. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On August 24, 2008 the President signed a Disaster Declaration, FEMA-1785-DR-FL, for Tropical Storm Fay, August 18, 2008 and continuing.  Four counties (Brevard, Monroe, Okeechobee, and St. Lucie) are eligible for Public Assistance.  All counties are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.(FEMA HQ)