Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Remnants of Fay are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches through the evening over parts of northeastern North Carolina, Virginia, northeastern West Virginia, western Pennsylvania, and Maryland.
Midwest
Precipitation is expected from the Upper Midwest into eastern Kansas. Some rainstorms are also probable from Wisconsin into eastern Iowa.
Severe storms are possible toward evening across limited areas of Missouri and eastern Kansas.
South
Isolated and locally scattered showers are possible in the Carolinas, Florida, the Gulf Coast, Louisiana, Mississippi and parts of West and south Texas.
West
Isolated storms are possible in Arizona, New Mexico, and western Washington. In the San Francisco Bay area an excessive heat watch has been issued for the East Bay valleys and Santa Clara Valley.
In northwest California, strong offshore winds and high temperatures will lead to extreme wildfire danger. Overall, highs will range from the 50s in the northern Washington Cascades and Glacier National Park to well over 100 degrees in the Mojave and Sonora Deserts and California's Central Valley. (NWS, HPC, Media Sources)

TD Fay Response

The remnants of Tropical Fay have crossed into the Appalachian Mountains and the severe weather threat has moved northward.
Federal Response:
Region IV:
FEMA RRCC remains activated at Level II, 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. EDT. Region IV IMAT is deployed to the Florida Emergency Operations Center (EOC) in Tallahassee and the Joint Field Office (JFO) in Orlando, Florida. ERT-A status: One team is on alert and the other team is deployed to the Alabama EOC. The JFO for FEMA-1785 opens today, August 28 in Orlando, Florida.
State Actions
Florida:
The State EOC is activated at Level II (partial activation). There has been fourteen confirmed fatalities and six confirmed injuries. Four shelters are open with a population of 412. All sheltered residents are from Lee County. There are 506 customers without power, which is down from 5,000 on Tuesday. The Florida National Guard continues troop drawdown. Currently, the majority of operations include recovery and redeployment.
Alabama:
The Governor has declared a State of Emergency. There has been one confirmed fatality and no confirmed injuries. The FEMA Response Liaison is on site.
Mississippi:
The pre-designated Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO) and Response Liaison are on stand by.(SLB; FEMA Region IV)

Tropical Storm Gustav Federal / State Preparations

FEMA NRCC:
NRCC is activated at Level 3 (Watch plus Planning Unit), 24 hour operations.
NRCC will activate at Level 2 (Watch plus selected Emergency Support Functions (ESF) at 24 hour operations) at 7 a.m. EDT on August 28.
National IMAT-East will re-deploy to Baton Rouge by the end of the week.

FEMA Region IV:
Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) is activated at Level 2 (Watch plus selected ESFs. Regional priority is sheltering, transportation and logistics. Region IV IMAT deployed to the JFO in Orlando, Florida will move to Jackson, Mississippi on August 29. The Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO) deployed to Alabama.
FEMA Region VI:
The RRCC is activated at Level 2; Planning to activate to Level 1 (full ESF activation level) on Friday, August 29. Warm Cell Hurricane Planning Team is activated in New Orleans.
Pre-designated Federal Coordinating Officers (FCO) are working closely with the States.

State of Texas
The State Operations Center (SOC) will transition to full activation on Saturday, August 30, at 9 a.m. EDT. The Governor is expected to request a pre-landfall declaration. Texas is planning for two contingencies: 1.) response to a CAT 3 hurricane or higher landfall strike and 2.) support of 40,000 to 50,000 evacuees from the State of Louisiana. The Governor has activated 5,000 members of the Texas Militia. 750 buses is en route to San Antonio and 300 ambulances have been requested.

State of Louisiana
The State has identified two large shelters within the State that can be occupied. The State has also conducting conference calls with SE/SW risk Parishes as well as host Parishes. The Governor issued a State disaster proclamation on Wednesday, and FEMA anticipates the Governor will request a pre-landfall declaration. Evacuations will begin 72 hours prior to the arrival of tropical storm force winds. The Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (LADOTD) will activate their bus contract today for 700 buses; buses will begin to arrive at 9:00 a.m. CDT August 28. LADOTD will activate their truck contract today for pet evacuation. The Louisiana National Guard will be activating 3,000 soldiers. GOHSEP activated the State EOC at Level III on August 27 at 6:00 p.m. CDT, and will transition to Level II at 6:00 a.m. August 28. Potential hospital and nursing home evacuations may begin late Friday. (Region IV, Region VI, Louisiana Unified Command Group Meeting)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Gustav
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was located about 80 miles east of Kingston, Jamaica and about 170 miles south of Guantanamo, Cuba. Gustav is moving toward the southwest near 8 mph. A turn toward the west is expected later today and to the west- northwest on Friday. The center of Gustav is expected to pass very close to Jamaica later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next 48 hours and Gustav could regain hurricane strength by Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center. Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over southern Cuba and 6 to 12 inches over Haiti, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches possible. These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Remnant of Tropical Depression Fay
Remnants of Fay is moving into the Mid-Atlantic states. Flash flood watches remain in effect for portions of central and western North Carolina and southwestern Virginia. Flood warnings remain in effect for portions of Georgia, Florida, and Alabama. At 11:00 p.m. EDT, the weak surface low associated with Fay was located about 40 miles south of Jackson, Kentucky. The remnants of Fay will continue to move northeastward and weaken tonight.

Tropical Depression Eight
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories for Tropical Depression #8, located about 355 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph; a turn to the northwest is expected later today. On this track the depression will be passing well north of the Leeward Islands during the next 24 hours. Maximum winds are 35mph. This Depression has the potential to become a Tropical Storm later today or Friday.

Tropical Wave
A large tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic about 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days at it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
There is no current tropical cyclone activity at this time. (NOAA, HPC,  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Numerous earthquakes occurred in the Vancouver Island region of Canada, approximately 309 miles west of Vancouver. (USGS, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, August 27, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: Light (172 new fires)
New large fires: 8
Uncontained large fires: 27
Large fires contained: 3
States with Large fires: OR, WA, CA, WY, CO, NV, UT, ID, MT, TN, NJ, AZ, and NM.
Northerly, offshore winds will continue in Northern California with poor overnight relative humidity recovery. A high pressure ridge building along the West Coast will bring warmer and drier conditions to much of the West. Dry and windy conditions will continue for Montana and Wyoming. Heavy rainfall will move into the Mid-Atlantic states. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1777-DR-Michigan; Amendment #1. Effective August 27, 2008 the declaration is amended to include Saginaw County for Public Assistance.
FEMA-1785-DR-Florida; Amendment # 3. Effective August 27, 2008 the declaration is amended to include Nassau and Palm Beach Counties for Public Assistance, and Volusia County for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance). (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Remnants of Tropical Depression Fay will produce heavy rain northward from the Virginias to Pennsylvania and localized flash flooding and isolated tornadoes may occur.

South
Parts of the South will see showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday including the Carolinas, Florida Peninsula and southern Texas.All interests along the Gulf Coast should closely monitor Hurricane Gustav over the next few days.

Midwest
Thunderstorms will be scattered on Wednesday ahead of a cold front from Lake Superior to the central Plains. Parts of southeast Ohio and eastern Kentucky will pick up some rain from remnants of Tropical Storm Fay.

West
Lingering tropical moisture will lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado on Wednesday. Across the Northwest, a front associated with a Pacific storm will trigger showers over Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana. Highs will range to over 100 in portions of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.  (NWS, Media Sources)

TD Fay Response

Region IV remains in response mode due to continued potential flooding from rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Depression Fay. (FEMA Reg IV RRCC)

Federal Response:
Region IV:

• RRCC remains at Level II,  7:00 a.m. -  7:00 p.m. EDT.
• Region IV IMAT deployed to FL EOC (1person Orlando, 1 person-Tallahasee)
• Region IV ERT-A deployed to Clanton, AL.
• Pre-designated FCO & Response Liaison on site in AL.

State Actions
State of Florida:
Thirteen (13) fatalities; five (5) injuries confirmed
Shelters/Population: 5/372 ( Red Cross)
Power Outages (506)  (FEMA Region IV)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.(FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Hurricane Gustav
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was located about 80 miles west of Port au Prince, Haiti and about 155 miles southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba.

Gustav has not moved much during the past few hours but is expected to resume a motion toward the west-northwest near 5 mph. A west-northwest to west track is forecast during the next day or two with a gradual increase in forward speed. On the forecast track Gustav should pass between Jamaica and the southeastern coast of Cuba on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast and Gustav could regain Hurricane strength on Thursday once it moves away from Haiti.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center.

Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches possible. 

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in areas of onshore winds.

Invest 95:  A broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days as it moves slowly northwestward.

Tropical Low #2: A large tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing limited and disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  This system has some potential for slow development during the next couple of days as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Tropical Low #3:  Cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of Bermuda have diminished.

Remnants of Fay:  The surface low associated with Fay was located 10 miles east of Chattanooga, Tennessee  moving northeast at 10 mph.   The remnants of Fay will continue to move northeastward and weaken across the Appalachians tonight.     

Eastern Pacific:
There is no current tropical cyclone activity at this time.

Western Pacific:
There is no current tropical cyclone activity at this time.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, August 26, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: Light (163 new fires)
New large fires: 8
Uncontained large fires: 26
Large fires contained: 2
States with Large fires: OR, WA, CA, WY, CO, NV, UT, ID, MT, TN, NJ and NM.

Dry and windy weather will continue today over portions of the Great Basin, Wyoming and Montana. Gusty winds and low humidity is also on tap for northern California and Minnesota. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Southeast.  (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On August 26, 2008, Amendment # 1 and 2 to FEMA-1785-DR-FL was approved.  Five (5) Counties were added for Individual Assistance and eight (8) Counties were added for Public Assistance.

On August 26, 2008, Amendment # 19 to FEMA-1763-DR-IA for Iowa was approved adding four (4) Counties for Individual Assistance.

On August 26, 2008, the Governor of Vermont requested a major disaster declaration as a result of excessive rainfall that caused flash flooding during the period of July 21 to August 12, 2008. The Governor is requesting Public Assistance for seven counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide.

On August 26, 2008 the Governor of Maine requested a major disaster declaration for Public Assistance for three counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide due to Severe Weather, Flooding and Tornadoes, dated August 22, 2008.  (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

South
Areas from the Southeast through the southern Appalachians will see significant rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Fay.

Although the rain is badly needed in the drought-stricken areas, flash flooding is likely in some locales and an isolated tornado is also possible.

West
Much of the Southwest, from Southern California to the Four Corners region, will be laden with tropical moisture today.  The result will be showers and thunderstorms over a good part of the area.  Some storms may produce blowing sand and dust in the Desert Southwest.

Northern sections of the Interior West will see some rather gusty winds.  California's Central Valley will remain in the mid-to upper 90s with a few 100s. High temperatures will range to over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.  The high temperatures and winds could raise the fire danger in the region.   (NWS, Media Sources)

TD Fay Response

Flooding on three major highways in Gadsden County, FL could possibly cause a major problem with access to the county.  Food and water is being delivered to Gadsden County by the state.
No reported impact to nationally significant critical infrastructure and/or key resources.(NWS)
The following rivers are reporting currently at or above flood stage: St. Marks River (Wakulla County), St. Marks River (Baker/Nassau Counties), St. John's River (Lake Harney/Volusia/Seminole Counties) Ochlocknee River near Bloxam/Havana (Gadsden/Leon Counties), Black Creek at Middleburg (Clay County), Sopchoppy River (Wakulla County), St. John's River at Astor/Deland/Sanford (Volusia/Lake Counties), Aucilla River at Lamont (Jefferson/Madison Counties), Fisheating Creek at Palmdale (Glades County) and Withlacoochee at Dunnellon (Citrus/Marion Counties). (FEMA Reg IV RRCC)

Federal Response:
Region IV:
RRCC remains at Level II,  7:00 a.m. -  7:00 p.m. EDT.
JFO location is being identified
PDAs continue in affected areas.
IMAT Situational Awareness (SA) Team is located in Leon County, FL

Region VI:
RRCC remains at Level III, 7:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT

State Actions
State of Florida:
Eleven (11) fatalities; five (5) injuries confirmed
Still in response mode due to potential flooding.
Shelters/Population: 4/296 ( SLB)
Power Outages 5,000. (SLB)

State of Louisiana:
State Crisis Action Team monitoring situation.
No limiting factors.
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is pulling out all of their flood teams staged in LA.     .(FEMA Regional Summaries)

State of Georgia
One (1) confirmed fatality; one (1) injury
Grady County, GA on Barnett Creek, Deer Lake Dam.
The dam was stated as being potentially at risk of failing.
The Georgia State Dam Safety Office representative stated that the dam has not failed.
The emergency spillway did flow and the dam apparently was damaged due to some overtopping.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Hurricane Gustav
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Hurricane Gustav was located about 100 miles south-southeast of Port au Prince, Haiti and about 300 miles southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba.

Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph and this motion is expected to continue today with a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed forecast on Wednesday.  On this track it should move over southwestern Haiti Tuesday and near or just south of Cuba on Wednesday. 

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph with higher gusts.  Gustav is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  The hurricane could become a category two hurricane before landfall in Haiti. 

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 Miles.

Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches over southern Hispaniola and Jamaica with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. 

Coastal storm surge flooding of 2-4 feet above normal tide levels can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.

Tropical Depression Fay
The National Hurricane Center reports Fay has weakened to a remnant low and is now a rain event for the SE.
The system was located 50 miles east of Jackson, Mississippi and 165 miles north of New Orleans, Louisiana.
 The system is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over parts of AL, FL panhandle, western and northern GA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas through Wednesday morning.

Invest 95
Shower activity has become a little more concentrated today about 600 miles east of the northern leeward islands.
Upper-level winds are expected to gradually become more favorable for development of this system over the next couple of days at it moves slowly northwestward.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Julio
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Depression Julio was located about 110
miles north-northwest of Santa Rosalia, Mexico.

The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph. This motion is expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts.  Julio is forecast to dissipate later today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Julio is expected to produce additional 1 to 3 inch rain accumulations over northwestern Mexico with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches possible.

Western Pacific:
There is no current tropical cyclone activity at this time. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On Monday, August 25, 2008 at 09:22 AM EDT a 6.6 magnitude earthquake struck 140 miles northeast of Jumla, Nepal at a depth of 21.7 miles.  There were at least three additional seismic events in the same area measuring over 5.0 - the latest occurring at 3:13 PM EDT.  There were no reports of damage or injuries.

On Monday, August 25, 2008 at 9:57 pm EDT, a 4.8 earthquake struck 118 miles west-southwest from Adak, AK at a depth of 32 miles.  There were no reports of damage or injuries and no Tsunami was generated.  (USGS, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Monday, August 25, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity: Light (69 new fires)
New large fires: 5
Uncontained large fires: 27
Large fires contained: 3

States with Large fires: AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, TN, WA and WY
Warm and dry conditions continue throughout much of the West.  Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible in northeast Nevada, northern Utah and western Wyoming.  A large low pressure system will approach the northwest with scattered showers mainly west of the Cascades, spreading east.  Winds speeds will also begin to increase across the West. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On August 26, 2008 FEMA 3287-EM-CA was amended closing the Incident Period effective  August 20, 2008.

On August 26, 2008 FEMA-1783-DR-NM was amended closing the Incident Period effective August 20, 2008.

On August 26, 2008 FEMA-1783-DR-NM was amended adding that all counties in the State are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.   (FEMA HQ)