Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)
Significant National Weather
West:
An early winter storm will produce snow or a rain/snow mix in the lower elevations from the Oregon Cascades and Sierras to Montana and much of Wyoming. Winter storm watches and warnings are in effect for parts of Montana and Wyoming. One to two feet of snow, with locally higher amounts, may fall in some mountain locations by the end of the weekend. Northerly winds, gusting to 60 mph, are forecast for southern California by this evening. The combination of strong winds and low humidity will create a period of critical fire weather conditions in the valleys and foothills until Saturday. Moisture from Hurricane Norbert (in the eastern Pacific) will enhance thunderstorms across southeast Arizona, New Mexico and eastern Colorado. As a strong high pressure builds into the Great Basin on Sunday, strong gusty Santa Ana winds could develop across parts of Southern California through Monday.
Midwest:
Cold air and moisture from the western storm will move into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Rain may mix with or change to wet snow over the western Dakotas. A winter storm watch is already in effect for westernmost South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota. Tomorrow, heavy rain and thunderstorms will extend from the Upper Midwest to Missouri. Moisture from Hurricane Norbert will enhance the rainfall from northeast Kansas to southeast Minnesota picking up 3 to 6 inches of rain.
South:
An upper level low will produce precipitation, including thunderstorms, over Florida, eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. Showers and thunderstorms will increase this weekend across western Oklahoma and western Texas. The thunderstorms have the potential to produce localized flooding as moisture from Hurricane Norbert streams into the southern High Plains.
Northeast:
High pressure over the region will result in generally dry conditions, only northern Maine will see any precipitation. (NOAA; National Weather Service; Various Media Sources)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic/Caribbean:
A broad trough of low pressure, extending from the Windward Islands northeastward into the Atlantic, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development. A second area of disturbed weather has increased in coverage about 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands. Additional development of the system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward.
Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Norbert
At 5:00 pm EDT, the center of Hurricane Norbert was about 315 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph. A gradual turn toward the north to north-northeast is expected with some increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane Norbert is now a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours.
Tropical Storm Odile
At 5:00 pm EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Odile was about 105 miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On this forecast track the center of the storm should move parallel to, but offshore of, the Pacific Coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.
Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
- National Fire Activity as of Thursday, October 09, 2008:
- National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 1
- Initial attack activity: Light (106 new fires)
- New large fires: 0
- Uncontained large fires: 2
- Large fires contained: 0
- States with large fires: CA, OR (NIFC)
Disaster Declaration Activity
On October 9, 2008, the President signed Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1802-DR-Kentucky as a result of a Severe Wind Storm, associated with Tropical Depression Ike that occurred September 14 - 15, 2008. Public Assistance for 33 counties and Hazard Mitigation commonwealth-wide authorized.
On October 9, 2008, the President signed Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1803-DR-Oklahoma as a result of Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding that occurred September 12 - 19, 2008. Public Assistance for 10 counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide authorized. (FEMA HQ)
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)
Significant National Weather
West:
A developing storm system will bring rain and mountain snow showers to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Snow levels will drop below 3,000 feet from Wyoming to Oregon. Sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph are possible from northern Arizona and central California northward to Idaho, Wyoming and Oregon. Gusts could exceed 45 mph in a few locations this afternoon and tonight. A fire weather watch has been issued for the entire San Francisco and Monterey Bay region from this evening until Saturday evening.
Tomorrow gusts over 55 mph are possible throughout the region. The windy conditions should spread southward into southern California, setting up a prolonged strong wind event through the weekend. The magnitude and drying effect of these winds will create favorable conditions for fire growth, especially over the interior valleys and mountain ranges.
Midwest:
A generally dry cold front will drop temperatures across the northern part of the region but produce only a few showers and thundershowers. Freeze warnings are in effect across the western portions of the Dakotas. South of the front temperatures will reach the lower 80s but north of the front highs will only reach the upper 40s.
South:
Yesterday's storm moves to the South Carolina coast bringing rain and scattered thunderstorms to the Carolinas, eastern Georgia and Florida. This system may produce severe thunderstorms, hail, locally damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado.
Northeast:
A cold front brings a few showers to the region this morning. Rainfall should be very light with most locations receiving less than one half inch. Skies will clear up during the afternoon hours with temperatures climbing into the 70s. (NOAA; National Weather Service; Various Media Sources)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Norbert
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Hurricane Norbert was about 410 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico. Norbert is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph and a gradual turn toward the north is expected later today followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Friday with some increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph with higher gusts. Norbert is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
Tropical Storm Odile
The fifteenth tropical storm of the season has formed over the eastern Pacific. At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Odile was located about 315 southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Odile is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A general west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On this forecast track the center of Tropical Storm Odile should move parallel to, but offshore of, the Pacific Coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.
Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, October 8, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 1
Initial attack activity: Light (150 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Uncontained large fires: 4
Large fires contained: 1
States with large fires: KY, CA (2), OR (2) (NIFC)
Disaster Declaration Activity
Florida: On October 8, 2008, the Governor of Florida requested a Major Disaster Declaration as a result of Hurricane Ike, beginning September 8, 2008, and continuing. The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance for 6 counties (Collier, Escambia, Gulf, Manatee, Santa Rosa, and Sarasota) and Hazard Mitigation for the entire State.
Puerto Rico: On October 8, 2008, Amendment #2 for FEMA-1798-DR for Puerto Rico adds 11 municipalities for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance, 7 municipalities for Public Assistance and 6 municipalities for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance)
North Carolina: On October 8, 2008, the President signed FEMA-1801-DR-North Carolina as a result of severe storms and flooding associated with Tropical Storm Hanna, September 4-15, 2008. (FEMA HQ)
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)
Significant National Weather
South
Thunderstorms with heavy rain at times will extend from northern Alabama through northern Georgia, and into the Carolinas. The weather system will move slowly eastward by Thursday, October 8.
Midwest
On Wednesday morning, some rainfall will move slowly though the Midwest and Great Lakes region, and into eastern Kentucky, Ohio and West Virginia during the afternoon.
Northeast
Showers will move across the western regions of the Northeast by Wednesday evening and spread throughout the Northeast on Thursday as a weak cold front advances.
West
Mostly calm weather occurs across the West, with just a few showers expected over the Northwest and northern Rockies. A developing weather pattern over the weekend could precipitate the season's first significant Santa Ana wind event in Southern California by Sunday, October 11. (NOAA; National Weather Service; Various Media Sources)
Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike
FEMA Region VI Update
As of October 7, 2008, nearly all petroleum pipelines had resumed operations. EPA reports 581,874 barrels per day of the Gulf's crude production remains shut-in. This is equivalent to 44.8% of the Gulf's crude oil production. The Gulf's natural gas production shut-in is 2,860 million cubic feet per day, which equates to 38.7 percent of the Gulf's gas production. All 116 rigs operating in the region are manned.
Federal priorities include the following: Ensure the safety of all deployed personnel, support emergency shelters, implementation of the Joint State-Federal housing plan, public infrastructure restoration, and continuation of debris removal. (FEMA-DAD)
Louisiana
GOSHEP remains activated at Level III (Emergency Operations).
The National Shelter System (NSS) reports three shelters remain open with a population of 91. Nine MDRCs / MRICs and ten DRCs are open for registration intake. (FEMA-DAD)
Texas
There are 47 confirmed fatalities.
The State Emergency Operations Center remains activated at Level I (Emergency Conditions).
The NSS reports ten shelters remain open with a population of 1,339. Twenty-eight MDRCs / MRICs and sixteen DRCs are open for registration intake. (FEMA-DAD)
As of October 6, there are no current power outages being reported. CenterPoint Energy reports it has restored electricity to all customers that can receive power.
Twenty-four Public Assistance (PA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) have been completed, with six PA PDAs scheduled or in progress. Six Individual Assistance (IA) PDAs have been completed, with one IA PDA scheduled.
As of October 7, some operational limitations still exist on some critical waterways. These include draft restrictions in Galveston and Texas City, TX waterways. (TX JFO, SitRep #25 Oct 7)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No new activity to report.(FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Weather Outlook
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Norbert
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Norbert was located about 470 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Norbert is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. This motion is expected to continue today with a gradual turn to the north on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have `Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
miles.
Tropical Weather Outlook
92E - A slow-moving area of low pressure located about 90 miles southwest of the coast of Nicaragua is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation in this area during the next day or two as the system moves slowly west-northwestward.
Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories.(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments
No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update
National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, October 7, 2008 was light with 43 new fires. The National Wildfire Preparedness Level is 1. There were two new large fires reported and one large fire contained. Five uncontained large fires continue in Kentucky, California, and Oregon.
Fire Weather: A high pressure ridge will build over the West with warmer and drier conditions. Offshore flow will develop across southern California, while relative humidity will gradually increase in the Southeast.(NIFC)
Disaster Declaration Activity
The Governor of Missouri requested a major disaster declaration as a result of severe storms, flooding, and flashfloods during the period of September 11-24, 2008. The Governor is specifically requesting IA for 24 counties and the independent City of St. Louis, PA for 47 counties, and Hazard Mitigation statewide. (FEMA HQ)
