Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Northeast
A northerly flow of unseasonably cold air will continue to cross Lake Ontario, creating lake effect snow until early afternoon, while the remaining northeastern states should be precipitation-free.  A Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect for northwest New York and a Freeze Warning is in effect for the New York Metro area until 12:00 p.m. EST.  Southwest Vermont is under a Winter Weather Advisory, which is in effect until 10:00 a.m. EST.
Midwest
A cold front will move aggressively eastward across the upper Midwest producing light snow from northeast North Dakota to Michigan.  A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in effect today for portions of northern Michigan and a Lake Effect Snow Watch will be in effect from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for northeast Wisconsin and northern Michigan.  This same system will push cold air southward over the Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley.
South
Cold temperatures are forecast in the Southeast, including northern Florida, where record or near record-low temperatures are likely in some spots.  A Freeze Warning is in effect for South Carolina coastal areas, all of Georgia along with northeast and west central Florida until 9:00 a.m. EST.  Southern Georgia, the Panhandle of Florida and northeast Florida are under a Hard Freeze Warning until 9:00 a.m. EST.  The majority of the South will experience dry and sunny weather, with the exception of light showers expected for the southeastern coast of Florida.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect for northeast Georgia, the Panhandle of Florida and northwest South Carolina until 6:00 p.m. EST.  A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for southern Alabama, the Panhandle of Florida and portions of southern Florida until Wednesday afternoon.  Flood Warnings continue for southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.
West
Parts of western and central Montana, in conjunction with central Idaho, are expected to receive light rain and mountain snow; the remaining portions of the West are forecasted to be dry.  A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for the Santa Ynez Range and the south coast of Santa Barbara county from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.  (NOAA, National Weather Service and Various Media Sources)

California Wildfires

State Actions:

• California OES Southern Emergency Operations Center is at 12-hour operations, day shift, with night duty officer, in Los Alamitos
• Governor's Proclamations of Emergency:
• Santa Barbara County - November 14, 2008
• Los Angeles, Orange, and Riverside Counties - November 15, 2008
• San Bernardino County - November 17, 2008

FEMA Region IX Actions

• FEMA Regional Watch is operating at Steady State, 12/7 operations
• Regional ERT White team is in Pasadena, California.
• Regional liaisons are deployed to Southern Regional Emergency Operations Center (REOC) in Los Alamitos, and Geographic Area Coordination Center (GACC) for Southern Ops in Riverside

 Federal Actions:

• President declared Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1810-DR on November 18, 2008 for the counties of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and Santa Barbara.
• Fire Management Assistance Grants FMAGS Issued:
• Tea Fire - 2790, November 13, 2008
• Sayre Fire - 2791, November 15, 2008
• Triangle Complex (formerly the Freeway Complex) - 2792, November 15, 2008
• 4 MDRC units with MDRC kits expected to arrive today at Pasadena, CA
• Bothell MERS units at Pasadena, CA
• Preliminary Damage Assessments:
• Santa Barbara: Federal and State IA and PA PDAs completed on November 17-18, 2008
• Los Angeles: IA and PA PDAs on-going
• Orange: Federal and State IA and PA PDAs completed on November 18, 2008
• Riverside: Federal and State IA and PA PDAs completed on November 17-18, 2008

Specific Fire Incidents:
Freeway Complex (Riverside/Orange/Los Angeles Counties)

• Approximately 28,889 acres burned with 75 percent containment.
• Anticipated full containment today
• 0 fatalities; 9 firefighters injured
• Destroyed structures: 155 residences destroyed
• Damaged structures: 104 residences and 3 commercial properties
• Threatened structures: 1,000 homes and 25 commercial properties
• Orange County has opened a Local Assistance Center  Freeway Complex Fire: Source -  Orange County Fire Authority)
• 2 shelters with 18 occupants
• The following evacuation orders are in effect: Carbon Canyon areas of Olinda Village and Hollydale Mobile Home Park, affecting 256 people
• Mandatory evacuations for Carbon Canyon areas west of Valley Springs Road were lifted today for residents only
• Resources:
• Approximately 3,760 (-52) firefighting personnel assigned
• 537 (-14) Engines
• 78 Crews
• 22 (-2) Dozers
• 10 Water tenders
• 3 Helicopters

Sayre Fire (Los Angeles County):

• Approximately 11,213 acres burned with 70 percent containment
• 0 fatalities; 2 firefighters injured
• Destroyed structures: 479 residences, 1 commercial property and 124 outbuildings
• Damaged structures: 138 residences, 3 commercial properties and 6 outbuilding
• Threatened structures: 142 residences and 35 outbuildings
• 1 shelter with 18 occupants
• All evacuation orders have been lifted with the exception of the Oakridge Mobile Home Park and  (Sayre Fire: Source - Los Angeles Fire Dept.)  Placerita Canyon
• Resources:
• Approximately 1,301 (-109) firefighting personnel assigned
• 37 Crews
• 10 (+9) Water Tenders
• 6 (+3) Helicopters
• 79 administrative personnel

Tea Fire (Santa Barbara County):

• The fire is currently listed at 1,940 acres and is 100% contained
• 0 fatalities; 10 firefighters injured
• Destroyed structures: 210 residences
• Damaged structures: 9 residences
• There will be no further reporting on the Tea Fire  (FEMA Region IX, Red Cross NSS, CalFire Report, Santa Barbara County CA. Los Angeles City Fire Department, Orange County Fire Authority)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
No tropical cyclone formation is expected during the next 48 hours

Eastern Pacific:
No tropical cyclone formation is expected during the next 48 hours

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings (NOAA, HPC,  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

• The President signed Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1810-DR-CA for wildfires occurring November 13, 2008 and continuing.  The declaration provides for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance for the counties of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and Santa Barbara, and Hazard Mitigation statewide.  The FCO is Mark A. Neveau of the National FCO Program.
  
• FEMA-1800-DR-Illinois Amendment #5 adds the following 9 counties for public assistance: Will, Woodford, Bureau, Cass, Greene, Kendall, Macoupin, Scott and Montgomery.
  
• FEMA-1792-DR-Louisiana Amendment #6 closes the incident period effective November 7, 2008.
  
• FEMA-3295-EM-Louisiana Amendment #1closes the incident period effective November 7, 2008.(FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Northeast:  Significant snow is likely to fall over West Virginia and an inch or so may fall around the Chesapeake Bay and Del-Mar-Va areas.  A developing storm in the western Atlantic on Tuesday will allow winds to increase over coastal sections of New England with ocean-effect rain changing to snow later in the day over Cape Cod and the southeast Massachusetts Islands.
 
Temperatures will be quite cold for November and the wind will make it feel even colder.
Highs will range from the upper 20s or low 30s in many interior locations to the 40s in south-central and southeast Virginia.

Midwest:  Cold, northwesterly winds off of the Great Lakes will produce significant amounts of lake-effect snow over some locations on Tuesday creating bands of snow that will dump several inches over parts of Ohio, especially east and south of Cleveland.

Cold winds blowing over Lake Michigan will create difficult travel conditions with snow continuing over southwest Michigan and shifting to northern Indiana.

South:  Temperatures will drop to the teens over the southern Appalachians and dip to the freezing mark through northern Florida.  The South will be dry but a few snow showers may fly over coastal areas of Virginia and North Carolina.

West:  Conditions over Southern California will become more favorable for fighting fires over the next couple of days as winds remain light and temperatures begin to gradually cool.   (NOAA, National Weather Service and Various Media Sources)

California Wildfires

State Actions:
Governor requested Major Disaster Declaration on November 17, 2008
California OES SOC is at 12-hour operations, day shift, with night duty officer.
California OES Southern Emergency Operations Center is at 12-hour operations, day shift, with night duty officer, in Los Alamitos.

FEMA Region IX Actions
FEMA Regional Watch is operating at Level IV, 12/7, with the watch center
Regional ERT White team is in Pasadena.
Region liaisons at Southern REOC in Los Alamitos, and GACC SouthOps in Riverside
Liaison Officers will support these operation centers during their day shifts. The liaison officer at the SOC was demobilized November 17, 2008.

Federal Actions:
Fire Management Assistance Grants FMAGS Issued:
Tea Fire - 2790, November 13, 2008
Sayre Fire - 2791, November 15, 2008
Triangle Complex (formerly the Freeway Complex) - 2792, November 15, 2008
4 MDRC units with MDRC kits moving to Pasadena, CA
Scheduled to arrive on-scene on November 19, 2008.
Bothell MERS units at Pasadena

Preliminary Damage Assessments:
Santa Barbara: IA and PDA conducted November 17, 2008; IA 100% complete; PA in process
Los Angeles: IA and PA scheduled for November 18, 2008
Orange: IA in process, PA scheduled for November 18, 2008
Riverside: IA and PA conducted November 17, 2008; IA 100% complete; PA in process

Specific Fire Incidents (Priorities set by California Fire):
Priority 1
Freeway Complex
Approximately 28,889 acres burned with 60 percent containment.
155 residences destroyed, 104 damaged
1,000 homes remain threatened
Approximately 49,923 residents evacuated
3 shelters with 24 occupants
Resources:
551 Engines
78 Crews
24 Dozers
10 Watertenders
3 Helicopters

Priority 2
Sayre Fire (Los Angeles County):
Approximately 11,207 acres burned with 64 percent containment
Damaged/ Destroyed structures: 615 (all types)
4 shelters with 105 occupants
All mandatory evacuations have been lifted with the exception of the Oakridge Mobile Home Park.
Resources:
28 Fire Companies
1 Water Tenders
3 Helicopters
50 Command/Support Staff Members

Priority 3
Tea Fire (Santa Barbara County):
The fire is currently listed at 1,940 acres and is 100% contained 
One (1) shelter with 5 occupants
There will be no further reporting on the Tea Fire   (FEMA Region IX, Red Cross NSS, CalFire Report, Santa Barbara County CA. Los Angeles City Fire Department, Orange County Fire Authority)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
No tropical cyclone formation is expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
No tropical cyclone formation is expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings.(NOAA, HPC,  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On November 17, 2008 Governor Schwarzenegger requested a major disaster declaration for the State of California as a result of extremely high winds and wildfires beginning November 13, 2008.  The Governor is specifically requesting:
Individual Assistance
Public Assistance
Direct Federal assistance,
For Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Santa Barbara Counties
Hazard Mitigation statewide. 
The Governor also requests reimbursement for pre-mobilization, which began on November 12, 2008.   (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Northeast:  Lake-effect snow warnings are posted for Pennsylvania, New York State and areas of New York immediately east of Lake Ontario.  Some locations could have well over a foot of snow (total accumulation) during the day Monday.  Rain or snow showers may also move into New England and from West Virginia to the Delmarva Peninsula.

Brisk northwest winds will hold temperatures below seasonal norms with highs ranging from the 30s in many interior areas to the low to mid 50s in south-central Virginia.

Midwest:  Snow showers, flurries and lake-effect snow squalls will extend from portions of the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes Monday as cold, blustery northwest winds whip across the region.  The heaviest snows will blanket portions of Michigan's U.P., Lower Michigan and Ohio; totals reaching over a foot in some spots by Monday evening.  Temperatures will be substantially below mid-November means in all of the Midwest.

West:  The Santa Ana winds in Southern California should all but disappear Monday, but a weak offshore flow will keep temperatures high and humidities low.  (NOAA, National Weather Service and Various Media Sources)

California Wildfires

State Actions:
Governor's Proclamations of Emergency:
Santa Barbara County - November 14, 2008
Los Angeles, Orange, and Riverside Counties - November 15, 2008
California OES SOC is at Level II, 24 hour operations.
California OES Regional Emergency Operations Center is at 24 hour operations.
California has requested fire resources under the mutual aid agreement with the Federal fire community.
Fire Command is maintaining Level 2 status.

FEMA Region IX Actions
FEMA Regional Watch is operating at Level 2, 24/7 with selected ESFs
Regional ERT White team is in Pasadena.
Region IX liaisons at Southern REOC in Los Alamitos, GACC SouthOps in Riverside, and OES SOC in Sacramento
OES and the Region will begin conducting PDAs starting Monday in Santa Barbara County and moving toward a request for a Federal Declaration. Region has identified staff to handle PDAs and is coordinating actively with the State. The other 3 Counties have indicated they will not be ready for PDAs until later in the week.

Federal Actions:
Fire Management Assistance Grants FMAGS Issued:
Tea Fire - 2790, November 13, 2008
Sayre Fire - 2791, November 15, 2008
Triangle Complex (formerly the Freeway Complex) - 2792, November 15, 2008
4 MDRC units with MDRC kits moved to Pasadena, CA
2 MDRC units placed on standby for deployment to R-IX
Joint PDAs will begin on Monday, Nov 17 in Santa Barbara County
Bothell MERS units enroute to Pasadena, CA

Specific Fire Incidents (Priorities set by California Fire):
Priority 1
Triangle Complex (formerly the Freeway Complex)
Riverside/Orange County: In the Anaheim Hills area west of Corona in Riverside County toward and into Yorba Linda in Orange County.
Fire has moved into Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties and is threatening the community of Diamond Bar (approximately 1,000 residences in Los Angeles County)
Approximately 23,722 acres burned with zero percent containment.
Destroyed structures: 60 homes
Damaged structures: 101 homes and 1 commercial property
3,500 homes, 100 businesses threatened
A mandatory evacuation is in effect for the Olinda Ranch, Valencia and Lambert Road areas
Approximately 25,600 have been evacuated
Currently 19% containment
7 shelters with with unknown occupants
Approximately 49,923 residents evacuated
3,699 fire fighting personnel

Priority 2
Sayre Fire (Los Angeles County):
The fire is currently listed at 10,077 acres
With 40 percent containment
Destroyed structures: 477 homes, 10 commercial properties and 124 outbuildings
Damaged structures: 15 homes and 1 commercial property
Media is reporting the mobile home park is being sealed off as a possible crime scene
The modular home park overrun by the Sayre, with 500 homes destroyed. The park has been 35% evaluated, and plans have been made to bring the residents by bus to view the park Monday, November 17, 2008.
There are currently 7,500 residences and 200 outbuildings threatened
Units demobilizing from the Tea Incident are immediately being sent to the Sayre fire.
Two General Aviation airports are affected:
Van Nuys is restricting some takeoffs and landings.
Whitman Airport is restricted to IFR only. 

Infrastructure:
Less than 900 residences are currently without power per CUEA.  CEAU has returned to the duty officer staffing level.

Evacuations/Shelters:
Mandatory evacuations for 40 residences
4 shelters with unknown occupants
5 animal shelters have been established.

Resources:
1,410 fire fighting personnel
37 crews, 12 helicopters, 211 engines, 15 dozers, 10 water tenders and 142 overhead assigned
Los Angeles County has requested Mutual Aid resources from the State
OES prepositioned a 48 ft tractor trailer at the National Guard Armory in Sylmar, CA, containing 624 general population cots, 120 ADA cots, 1,440 blankets, 744 pillows and 1,000 hygiene kits

Priority 3
Tea Fire (Santa Barbara County):
The fire is currently listed at 1,940 acres and 80% contained
Units are being demobilized and immediately sent to the Sayre fire
210 residences destroyed
9 residences damaged
Fire resources being released to other fires

Infrastructure:
Power has been restored to all but damaged/destroyed homes

Evacuations/Shelters:
Approximately 600 residents remain evacuated
2shelter with 72 occupants
Santa Barbara County has requested Mutual Aid resources from Region 1 and the State

Medical:
No hospitals evacuated at this time. USPHS reports that there has been no increase in hospital ER visits due to unhealthy air quality

Transportation:
Numerous sections of interstate and state highways are closed due to multiple fires. Road conditions can change rapidly with the shifting winds
Several commuter rail lines have been impacted
Currently there are three Traffic Flight Restrictions (TFR) in affect in the fire areas
There is no current impact on commercial aviation

Resources:
1,957 fire fighting  personnel assigned
53 crews, 184 engines, 9 dozers, 14 water tenders, 131 overhead assigned   (FEMA Region IX, CalFire Report, Santa Barbara County CA. Los Angeles City Fire Department, Orange County Fire Authority)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
No tropical cyclone formation is expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
No tropical cyclone formation is expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On November 16, 2008 at 12:02 pm EST, a 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck the Minhasa, Sulawesi, Indonesia region at a depth of 16.2 miles.  There were no reports of damage or injuries.  The earthquake generated the potential for a regional Tsunami, although there are no reports of a Tsunami occurring.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)