Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Midwest
A few showers and thunderstorms, some severe, may impact Iowa and parts of Illinois and Missouri and move southeastward toward the mid-Mississippi Valley.  High temperatures will range from the mid-70s across Lake Superior to over 100 in western Kansas.
Northeast
A cold front may bring severe storms, heavy rainfall and flash flooding for much of New England and Long Island, NY today as it moves eastward through the region.  Many areas could receive 3 to 6 inches of rain.  High temperatures will range from the 70s in Buffalo, NY to the 80's in Washington, DC.
South
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Brownsville to Port Aransas, Texas.  Coastal Tropical Storm Warnings elsewhere are discontinued.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT, July 23, 2008, Dolly made landfall at South Padre Island, Texas, as a Category Two hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph. 
Dolly is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches in portions of south Texas and northeastern Mexico over the next few days. These rains will likely cause widespread flooding across portions of south Texas and northeast Mexico.  Elsewhere in the South, isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast mainly in coastal locations and the Florida Peninsula.  Highs for the region will range from around 80 in the southern Appalachians to 100 in much of Oklahoma.
West
Much of the region will be dry with isolated storms and showers over the interior from eastern Montana southward to eastern Arizona and western New Mexico.  High temperatures will be seasonal with 60s in northern California  to well over 100 in Death and San Joaquin Valleys.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Tropical Storm Dolly

FEMA  Region VI Actions
FEMA Region VI is activated Level II, 24-hour operations
3 PA PDA teams deployed / 2 PA PDAs on standby; 4 IA PDA teams deployed / 2 IA PDAs on standby
MERS personnel and assets staged
 
State Actions - Texas
TX State EOC fully staffed (Level I)
TX Gov requested a Major Disaster Declaration
21 shelters; 3,774 occupants
47,688 without power
Levees and dams are being closely monitored
All fuel demands being met; no shortages reported

Louisiana Oil Spill

FEMA  Region VI Actions
FEMA Region VI is activated Level II, 24-hour operations
FEMA-State liaison has reported to the LA EOC 
FEMA currently has 542,988 liters of water prepositioned 70 miles from New Orleans

State Actions
Current focus on response and containment
Some water intakes closed; sampling underway 
Possible contamination of water supply in some parishes
Economic impact expected due to MS River closure
State not expected to request Federal assistance to supply water to two parishes whose intake valves have been shut down.

California Wildfires

Statewide Statistical Summary:
Currently, there are 2,064 contained fires.  Total fires are 2,096.  98% of the fires in California are contained.  There are 32 active fires.  A total of 1,009,722 acres has burned and 13,532 personnel have been assigned.  (CAL Fire 9:00 p.m. PDT, July 23 report, CAL OES)
Fatalities - 3
Injuries - 338
Structures destroyed: 122 residences; 1 commercial; 139 outbuildings
Structures threatened: 4,926 residences; 136 commercial; 2,183 outbuildings

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Dolly
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located about 95 miles northwest of Brownsville, Texas.  Dolly is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph.  Continued motion toward the west-northwest is expected during the next day or so with a slight increase in forward speed until the system dissipates on Friday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Dolly is expected to weaken as it moves further inland and is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight.(NWS, National Hurricane Center)

"Area 1" (Low potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
A broad area of low pressure associated with a large westward-moving tropical wave is located over the tropical eastern Atlantic about 600 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.  Significant development of this system is not expected during the next couple of days.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Genevieve
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was located about 575 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Genevieve is moving toward the west near 10 mph. A westward or west-northwestward motion with little change in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph, with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast to resume today and Genevieve could approach hurricane strength during the next day or so.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, July 23, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 4
Initial attack activity: Heavy (332 new fires)
New large fires: 8
Uncontained large fires: 35
Large fires contained: 6
States with Large fires - CA, MT, NC, TN, TX, UT, VA and WA
Wet thunderstorms will continue today across the Eastern Great Basin, Montana and Wyoming. Thunderstorms are possible across northern Washington. Dry air will continue to move into California and Nevada with warmer temperatures across the West.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On July 23, 2008, the Governor of Texas requested an expedited Major Disaster Declaration as a result of Hurricane Dolly. 
On July 21, 2208, the Governor of Idaho requested a Major Disaster Declaration for the entire state as a result of heavy rains, flooding, and rapid snow melt. (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Midwest
A few showers and thunderstorms, some severe, impacted the northern and central Plains overnight.  Showers are forecast for the Lower Ohio Valley, but will move out in the early morning.  High temperatures will range from the upper 70s across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, and parts of Illinois to the 100s in parts of Kansas.
Northeast
A cold front moving across the region may produce showers and thunderstorms across the Northeast  with heavy rainfall in portions of New York and New England and some severe storms in the Mid-Atlantic.  The slow moving front may also result in flash flooding for some areas.  High temperatures will range from the low 70s in Maine through the central Appalachians to the mid and upper 80s in extreme southern New England and Virginia.
South
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the coast of Texas from Brownsville to Corpus Christi and for the northeastern coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the border between Mexico and the United States.  Dolly should make landfall on the western Gulf of Mexico coast sometime today. The landfall location appears to be either southern Texas or extreme northern Mexico.  A cold front approaching the region will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Carolinas westward to Arkansas.  Highs for the region will be in the mid-90s across the Deep South and Lower Mississippi Valley to 100s in parts of Texas.
West
Much of the western U.S. will see mainly sunny skies with a few showers and storms along the high terrain of Idaho and Montana.  High temperatures will be near seasonal averages with widespread 80s and 90s and some 100s across the southwestern desert regions.   (NWS, Media Sources)

Hurricane Dolly Preparations

FEMA  Region VI Actions

• FEMA Region VI is activated Level II, 24 hour operations
• Two FEMA Liaisons and a DCE Representative are at the Texas SOC.
• Five MDRCs have been deployed.
• Three PA PDA teams and six IA PDA teams will deploy to Austin today. 

State Actions - Texas

• TX State EOC fully staffed (Level I)
• Governor of TX issued State Disaster Declaration for 14 counties in response to imminent threat posed by Hurricane Dolly.
• TX Military Forces (TMF) activated 1,200 members, an IMT and 6 UH-60s
• TX evacuations not anticipated, but preparations continue
• Texas reports no unmet needs

Rio Grande Levees, Texas

The United States Section of the International Boundary and Water Commission (USIBWC) is a government-sponsored commission that oversees boundary, water and environmental issues between the United States and Mexico.  The IBWC operates the Lower Rio Grande Flood Control Project, which consists of a series of flood control levees, dams, and floodways.

The IBWC is closely monitoring National Weather Service (NWS) warnings and forecasts for Hurricane Dolly.  In accordance with IBWC operating guidelines, staff go on "stand-by-alert" whenever a tropical depression, storm, or hurricane is within 100 miles of the Rio Grande watershed.  In this status, they would initiate testing of emergency equipment, check availability of additional flood supplies, and, as warranted, begin coordination with local, state, and Federal agencies. 

Should the Rio Grande experience flood conditions, IBWC staff will move into Flood Fight Operations.  In this phase, crews work 24 hrs a day to patrol flood control levees and identify and respond to any problems that may arise, including levee erosion and seepage.

The USIBWC also exchanges information with the Mexico section of the Commission regarding flood conditions along the Rio Grande in both countries.  In May, the U.S. and Mexican sections of the Commission conducted their annual flood workshop in preparation for the hurricane season. (USIBWC Press Release, July 22, 2008)

California Wildfires

Statewide Statistical Summary:

• Currently, there are 2,063 contained fires.  Total fires are 2,096.  98% of the fires in California are contained.  There are 33 active fires.  A total of 978,180 acres have been burned and 15,131 personnel have been assigned.  (CAL Fire 9:00 p.m. PDT, July 21 report)
•  Fatalities - 3
• Injuries - 334
• Structures destroyed: 122 residences; 1 commercial; 138 outbuildings
• Structures threatened: 4,926 residences; 136 commercial; 2,183 outbuildings
• State EOC is activated
• FEMA Region IX activated at Level III

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Cristobal
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located about 380 miles east of Halifax, Nova Scotia.  Cristobal is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph.  A turn toward the east is expected during the next 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph, with higher gusts.  No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Dolly
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located about 65 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.  Dolly is moving toward the west near 8 mph and northwestward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed expected today.  On this track, the center of Dolly will be along the coast near the Texas/Mexico border around midday today.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph, with higher gusts.  Some additional increase in strength is expected, and Dolly could approach Category Two intensity when it reaches the coastline later today. (NWS, National Hurricane Center)

"Area 1" (Low potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
A large and well-defined tropical wave is located over the far eastern Atlantic just west of the Cape Verde Islands.  Development of this system, if any, will be slow to occur as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Depression Fausto
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression Fausto, located about 750 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Genevieve
At 5:00 a.m. PDT, the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was located about 415 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Genevieve is moving toward the west near 9 mph, and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Genevieve could be at or near hurricane strength later today.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, July 22, 2008:

• National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5
• Initial attack activity: Light (194 new fires)
• New large fires: 5
• Uncontained large fires: 41
• Large fires contained: 4
• States with Large fires - CA, CO, MT, NV, NC, TX, UT, VA and WA
• Scattered wet thunderstorms are expected today over portions of northern California, eastern areas of Oregon and Washington, Eastern Great Basin and the Rockies. Drier air will begin pushing into the rest of California and Nevada. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Significant National Weather

Midwest
Scattered showers and thunderstorms forecasted for most of the Midwest with most of the activity centered around the Ohio Valley and Missouri. Some storms could be severe, producing strong winds, heavy rain and large hail.  High temperatures will range from the low 70s on Michigan's Upper Peninsula to the upper 90s in western Kansas.
Northeast
A cold front moving across the region may produce storms in western New York and Pennsylvania into New England.  Some areas will see brief, heavy downpours.  Tropical Storm Cristobal will be far enough into the Atlantic to have little impact on the East Coast.  High temperatures will range from the low 70s in northern Maine to over 100 in southeast and south-central Virginia.
South
A Hurricane Warning is in effect along the Texas coast in anticipation of Tropical Storm Dolly becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.  The first rainbands from Dolly could reach the Texas coast sometime today.  Tennessee could see some severe storms as a cold front passes over the state.
Highs for the region will generally be in the mid-90s to 100.
West
Much of the region will be dry today with some scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the Interior West.  Gusty northwest winds are forecast over Pacific beaches from northern California northward.  High temperatures will range broadly from the mid-50s along the northern California coast to over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.   (NWS, Media Sources)

California Wildfires

Statewide Statistical Summary:
Currently, there are 2,063 contained fires.  Total fires are 2,096.  98% of the fires in California are contained.  There are 33 active fires.  A total of 953,907 acres have been burned and 15,573 personnel have been assigned. (CAL Fire 9:00 p.m. PDT, July 21 report)
Fatalities - 3
Injuries - 324
Structures destroyed: 123 residences; 1 commercial; 138 outbuildings
Structures threatened: 4,958 residences; 139 commercial; 2,166 outbuildings
State EOC is activated
FEMA Region IX activated at Level III

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Cristobal
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located about 485 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Cristobal is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph, and a turn toward the east-northeast with a further increase in forward speed is expected during the next dy or two. 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph.  Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours as Cristobal loses tropical characteristics.

Tropical Storm Dolly
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located about 295 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas.  Dolly is moving toward the west near 15 mph.  A turn to the west-northwest is expected tomorrow with a decrease in forward speed followed by a turn to the northwest on Wednesday.  On this track, the center of Dolly should be very near the western coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Dolly is expected to become a hurricane prior to landfall.(NWS, National Hurricane Center)

"Area 1" (Medium potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
A large and well-defined tropical wave has emerged from western Africa and is located over the far eastern Atlantic a couple hundred miles east of the Cape Verde Islands.  Although this system will be traversing relatively cool waters, it still has some potential for tropical cyclone formation as it moves generally westward over the next couple of days.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Fausto
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located about 640 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Fausto is moving toward the west near 12 mph, and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Fausto could become a remnant low later today.

Tropical Storm Genevieve
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve was located about 310 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Genevieve is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph, and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next day or so.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph, with higher gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Monday, July 21, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5
Initial attack activity: Light (126 new fires)
New large fires: 5
Uncontained large fires: 36
Large fires contained: 3
States with Large fires - CA, CO, LA, MT, NV, NC, TX, UT, VA and WA
Thunderstorms, initially dry, are expected over portions of northern California, eastern Oregon and western Nevada today. Wet thunderstorms are also expected over portions of southern California and The Great Basin with drier storms over Idaho, western Montana and western Wyoming. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)